40% of cases will be variants of concern by mid-March, ICU admissions and case hospitalizations to increase
Posted February 25, 2021 3:07 pm.
Last Updated February 25, 2021 3:55 pm.
Ontario’s latest round of provincial modelling shows that variants of concern (VOC) continue to spread at an accelerated pace and will likely make up around 40 percent of COVID-19 cases by mid-March.
Co-chair of Ontario’s COVID-19 science advisory table Dr. Adalsteinn Brown said cases, hospitalizations, and ICU admissions will likely soon increase as a result of variants, recognizing the next few weeks will be critical to understanding the impact of VOC.
“If we are very careful, we can imagine a much better summer and a better summer is the payoff from the stay-at-home order and the vaccinations,” said Brown.
“But if we let up we will with little doubt lose the gains that we’ve worked so hard for.”
With public health measures loosening province-wide, including York Region and other PHUs transitioning over to Ontario’s colour-coded framework, the science advisory table concludes that the province can keep the gains made by watching spread very closely and by “loosening public health measures only carefully.
“We must be nimble in applying public health measures to extinguish flare-ups quickly,” according to the modelling’s latest key findings.
Toronto, Peel Region, and North Bay-Parry Sound will remain under a strict lockdown and stay-at-home order until at least March 9.
“The extended stay-at-home order in the GTA has been powerful protection against more rapid growth. But the first dangers are immediately in front of us. Case rates are already rising in some of the public health units again,” Brown continued.
“The new variants of the virus that first appeared in the United Kingdom, South Africa, and Brazil are another serious hazard ahead of us.”
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In mid-February, the last round of projections, Brown said that while public health and safety measures are effective and working, the highly transmissible B.1.1.7 variant remains Ontario’s biggest obstacle in curbing the spread of the virus.
To see more on these figures, scroll through the gallery below:
Case growth will depend on how the province manages these variants of concern, Brown says. The modelling shows that in a worst-case scenario with virus transmission considered high, the province could see around 4,000 new COVID-19 cases per day by the end of March.
Medium growth would mean roughly 2,500 new daily infections with low transmission keeping Ontario at around 1,000 cases per-day in this projected timeline.
An example of how quickly VOC leads to the rapid spread of the virus is what the modelling found in Northwestern and Thunder Bay PHUs. Weekly new cases per 100,000 residents (7-day average) have both PHUs reporting the highest average of weekly infections (105), followed by Peel Region (84,) Toronto (71,) and York Region (67).
There are positive developments and trends across Ontario’s long-term sectors with a decrease in reported deaths (20 in the last seven days). Daily active cases among staff at these long-term care homes have also diminished the modelling shows. COVID-19 hospitalization and ICU occupancy decreases have also started to level off.
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“Focused LTC vaccination, together with lockdowns, have rapidly reduced infections and deaths in long-term care,” the science advisory table determines.
129 LTC homes have COVID-19 outbreaks (20 percent of all homes) and as of Feb. 21, 46 involve residents.
The latest data also compared Ontario’s variant growth to that of other countries.
Brown noted the B.1.1.7 variant is at least 30 percent higher in terms of transmissibility than the current, original strain.
The latest data is in line with what federal health officials released on Feb. 19. The Public Health Agency of Canada suggested that while infections continue to decline nationally, the spread of virus mutations threatens to reverse that progress.
Even with current restrictions, the spread of the variants could push Canada’s caseload to more than 10,000 new diagnoses per day by April, according to Canada’s projections.
On Wednesday, Toronto’s top doctor Eileen de Villa and Toronto Public Health (TPH) reported 710 cases are now being screened for VOC; over 200 more than earlier in the week.
There are currently 72 confirmed VOC cases in Toronto as of yesterday. De Villa says 71 are of the B.1.1.7 variant first discovered in the UK and one is the P.1. variant first discovered in Brazil.
TPH also confirmed there are eight Toronto schools linked to at least one person that has screened positive for a COVID-19 variant of concern.
TPH says all affected individuals have been sent home and they have followed up with any close contacts to recommend testing.
