Canadian government says COVID-19 variants could fuel surge of 20K daily cases if restrictions eased

By The Canadian Press, Lucas Casaletto

New federal forecasts project that COVID-19 variants could fuel a surge of 20,000 new cases per day by mid-March if public health restrictions are relaxed further.

The Public Health Agency of Canada released modelling today suggesting that while infections continue to decline nationally, the spread of virus mutations threatens to reverse that progress.

The latest modelling concentrated on three variants of concern (VOC): the B.1.1.7 variant first identified in the UK, the B.1.351 strain first identified in South Africa, and P.1; the variant first identified in Brazil.

Canada’s chief public health officer says there are currently fewer than 33,000 active cases in Canada, a 60 percent drop compared to a month ago.

But with COVID-19 variants detected in 10 provinces, Dr. Theresa Tam says Canada may not be able to avoid a rapid acceleration of the epidemic without continued vigilance.

“If the variants do come into a province and they lift their public health measures, that is not what you need to see.”

Even with current restrictions, the spread of the variants could push Canada’s caseload to more than 10,000 new diagnoses per day by April, according to the projections.

But the forecasts suggest that Canada could control the outbreak with enhanced public health measures.

“We are at a critical point in the pandemic and our efforts have begun to tip the balance in our favour,” Tam told reporters.

“Protecting our progress and limiting the impact of variants of concern will require stronger action, with a combination of enhanced public health measures and strict adherence to individual precautions.”

This comes after Ontario’s latest round of modelling revealed the B.1.1.7 variant could “soon dominate” the province.

On Feb. 11, the science advisory table touched on the Ford government’s decision to relax COVID-19 restrictions, warning that because the B.1.1.7 strain is already widespread in Ontario, cases could rise if public health measures are further eased.


RELATED: Ontario lifts stay-at-home order for 27 health units


Variants have already been detected in all ten provinces.

On Thursday, Canada’s deputy chief public health officer said federal and provincial health experts are looking at evidence that one shot of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine against COVID-19 may be almost as good as giving two.

Doctor Howard Njoo said data presented by two Canadian doctors in the New England Journal of Medicine this week is compelling.


With files from 680 NEWS Parliament Hill reporter Cormac Mac Sweeney

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