‘I’ve never been more worried;’ Toronto officials asking province to extend lockdown, stay-at-home order

Toronto’s top doctor says she has written to Ontario’s medical officer of health to extend the City’s lockdown and stay-at-home measures until March 9th; something mayor John Tory strongly supports.

Tory made the announcement on Wednesday, saying officials are recommending staying under lockdown to avoid a third wave of COVID-19.

Ontario’s health minister, Christine Elliott says a decision on whether or not the Ford government will pause the reopening in Toronto and Peel will be made Friday.

“There is a new load of data coming in tonight that is going to determine the recommendation that Dr. Williams will be making to the government with respect to the situation to both Peel and Toronto,” said Christine Elliott, during question period at Queen’s Park.

Elliott repeated talking points made by Doug Ford earlier this week, contending it is not a reopening but a “transition” to the new framework. She also said the government can pull the trigger on an “emergency brake” to put areas back into lockdown, though it is not clear what the criteria is to use the brake.

Eileen de Villa said Wednesday that she has “never been more worried about the future.”

I've never been more concerned about the threat of #COVID19 in TO. I'd love to say we're ready to reopen, but today it's better to delay until the time is right. Let's keep doing all we can to protect our city so we can get back to brighter days sooner: https://t.co/hLb9AhwiIp

— Dr. Eileen de Villa (@epdevilla) February 17, 2021

 

“A week ago, there were 33 confirmed cases of COVID-19 variants in Toronto. Today, we have 56. In fact, there are more than five times that number being confirmed in the labs right now. 283 cases in Toronto have been screened of variants of concern,” she said.

Ontario numbers have moved in the right direction in recent weeks but instances of the more transmissible strains are now being identified in 15 public health units.

“The variants of concern mean we face a deceptively dangerous situation,” said de Villa. “Right now, the case count numbers don’t look so bad. They don’t sound bad. But today’s variant count is the tip of an iceberg.”

Tory, speaking to Breakfast Television on Thursday morning, says the numbers, though seemingly positive, need to be put into context.

“Let’s put those numbers in perspective,” he said. “Compared to the numbers we had at the end of the summer, they are still way, way higher.”

Tory also confirmed that he unequivocally stands behind de Villa and her recommendations.

“I think most people, given the choice of locking down again in a month or taking a little more time now to do this carefully with great caution, they would take the caution,” said Tory.

According to the latest provincial modelling data released last week, the UK variant (B.1.1.7) likely accounted for 10 per cent of current cases at that time, the data suggests the variant will soon become the dominant strain of the virus.

“There’s some evidence that it may also be more lethal,” said Dr. Adalsteinn Brown, Co-Chair of the Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table. “If the B.1.1.7 variant behaves as it did in the United Kingdom, cases will start to grow here again in late February or early March; that is unless we can limit the spread through public health measures.”

In a release by the City, they confirmed that variants have now been identified in long-term care homes, hospitals, a shelter, and a meat packing plant.

“The extension of the regulation would allow public health officials to focus on the safe reopening of schools and monitoring the new variants in the City,” the statement read.

Variants of concern (VOC) in Ontario (as of Wednesday, Feb. 17):

B.1.1.7 variant (UK): 338 (+29)

B.1. 351 variant (South Africa): 6 (-3)

P1 variant (Brazil): 1 (+0)

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RELATED: Relaxing restrictions: Why Peel Region might not be ready to ease public health measures

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De Villa says by the time the case counts are big enough to “shock us,” it will be too late. She also provided data on variants from around the globe, citing the importance and need of lockdown measures now, more than ever.

“In Germany today, the minister of health said the proportion of the B.1.1.7 variant there rose from just under 6 percent to more than 22 percent in two weeks and that the proportion of cases with the variant are doubling every week,” de Villa continued.

“Newfoundland and Labrador, which has seen a total of just over 700 cases throughout the entire pandemic, suddenly has almost 300 cases on its hands linked to the UK variant.”

Newfoundland and Labrador health officials are still struggling to push down a spike in COVID-19 cases which, at its height, saw as many as 100 new cases in a single day.

She says health officials now know that the UK variant began spreading last September but went unidentified.

“By mid-December, they skyrocketed to peak about 50,000 per day. That is what happens with exponential growth and exponential growth is what Toronto faces.”

This comes on the same day Peel’s top doctor, Lawrence Loh, recommended his public health unit also remain under current lockdown measures instead of moving to the province’s colour-coded framework.

Toronto and Peel cite a lack of vaccinations as another deciding factor that went into the letter of recommendation issued to Dr. David Williams.

“Toronto and Peel currently have largely unvaccinated populations. With uncertainty related to supply, it is unclear when the City and partners will be able to continue to vaccinate large portions of the population,” officials said.

They also suggest keeping the current measures in place following the reopening of schools, which will allow local public health to “mitigate the risk to students and staff as they return to in-person learning.”

Some students from inside the GTA – such as Toronto, York, and Peel Regions – returned for in-person learning on Tuesday.

Ontario is set to lift the stay-home order for Peel, Toronto, York Region, and North Bay next week as it moves the regions back into its pandemic restrictions structure.

Loh says if the province moves Peel back into the framework, it must bolster protections for workers.

“Public health has been clear: the safe reopening of schools, and careful monitoring of the variants, will require some time,” said Tory.

“I know extending the lockdown will cause continuing hurt for many businesses but I also know that we have followed the public health advice throughout this pandemic so that we can keep as many people healthy as possible so that we can save as many lives as we possibly can.”

Ontario has said it will consult with all of the medical officers of health in each region before deciding where a community will be placed in the tiered framework.

Health Minister Christine Elliott has said that no decisions have been made regarding the gradual reopening of the hot spots.

“The UK variant is the primary variant of concern right now,” said Elliott on Wednesday.

“But we also have cases of the South African and a case or so of the Brazillian variant. So, we have to be very careful. Any area that may be otherwise in a Green or Yellow area, if they have breakouts of this nature, that’s something that Dr. [David] Williams and the public health measures table is going to really concentrate on.”

“… We’re watching those variants very, very carefully because they can take off and suddenly put an area into crisis,” Elliott added.

Science advisors to the provincial government have said the new variants are poised to take prevalence in Ontario and could lead to the third wave of infections without strict control measures in place.

Doctor Barbara Yaffe, associate medical officer of health for Ontario said people shouldn’t let their guards down as restrictions loosen in most regions this week.