Key races: Ridings to watch on election night

The 44th Canadian general election is upon us and most polls suggest the race between the Liberals and Conservatives remains too close to call.

The tight race means there are a number of closely contested ridings across the country that could swing the result in Canada’s first-ever pandemic election.

Can the Liberals still form a majority government? Can the Conservatives gain enough seats to make Erin O’Toole the country’s 24th Prime Minister? Will we see another orange wave from the NDP? Will the Bloc give up ground in Quebec? Do party leaders Annamie Paul and Maxime Bernier have a chance at winning seats?

Here is a look at where the parties can hope to make some headway in each province – as well as some other close races to keep an eye on as the results start rolling in on Monday night.

---

RELATED: Federal Election 2021 real-time results and map

---

ATLANTIC CANADA

2019 seats: Liberal 27, Conservative 4, NDP 1

There does not appear to be much of a shake-up in store for the Maritimes and Newfoundland heading into election night. Polling suggests the Liberals should have an easy time keeping their hold on the region with the Conservatives in a position to possibly gain some ground in the form of a few seats.

The Conservatives are poised to flip Saint John-Rothesay in New Brunswick, with the Liberals on track to take back the lone NDP riding in Atlantic Canada – St. John’s East in Newfoundland – after the NDP MP incumbent there announced his retirement.

It’s shaping up to be an interesting three-way race in Fredericton, where the Greens are hoping to reclaim the New Brunswick capital. The Greens actually took the riding in 2019 with MP Jenica Atwin then crossing the floor to join the Liberal party earlier this year. The fight between the Liberals and the Greens could open the door for the Tories to pick up a seat here.

There are a few ridings to watch in Nova Scotia, there will be tight races between Conservative and Liberal candidates in Cumberland-Colchester, Sydney-Victoria and West Nova. The Conservatives are hoping to wrestle two seats away from Liberal incumbents in the two former ridings with the opposite being the case in the latter.

QUEBEC

2019 seats: Liberal 35, Bloc 32, Conservative 10, NDP 1

The big story in Quebec on election night will be a number of tightly contested ridings between the Bloc Quebecois and the Liberals. A surge from the Bloc in 2019 played a big part in Trudeau only coming away with a minority government. It will be in the best interest of Erin O’Toole and the Conservatives for the Bloc to have more success or, at the very least, not give up any ground and keep their seat total from 2019. If the Liberals are able to make gains it will afford them a larger cushion and give Trudeau a better opportunity to form the government even if they cede ground in other parts of the country.

There are a number of ridings to keep an eye on to gauge the tug-of-war between the Bloc and the Liberals. Sherbrooke may be the best opportunity the Bloc have to steal a seat from a Liberal incumbent on Monday night. While two former Liberal MP’s will be looking to regain their seats in Therese-De Blainville and Shefford after they were defeated by Bloc candidates in 2019.

The Conservatives aren’t just sitting back and watching in Quebec with two ridings shaping up to be three-way races between the Bloc, Liberals and Conservatives. The Conservatives have a solid shot of claiming both seats from the Bloc with a former Conservative MP looking to regain the seat she lost in 2019 in Beauport-Limoilou and the Bloc running a new candidate in Trois-Rivieres after the incumbent MP there announced her retirement.

Three of the party leaders are running in Quebec and attention will be on Beauce where People’s Party of Canada (PPC) leader Maxime Bernier is attempting to take back his old seat from the Conservative incumbent. The PPC have seen a relative surge in popular vote in the polls though Bernier likely serves as the party’s only realistic shot at a seat.

Liberal leader Justin Trudeau is the incumbent in the Montreal riding of Papineau while Bloc leader Yves-Francois Blanchet is the incumbent in Beloeil-Chambly. Both are considered safe bets to keep their seats.

ONTARIO

2019 seats: Liberal 79, Conservative 36, NDP 6

Ontario is where the Conservatives have the greatest opportunity to makes gains on Trudeau and the Liberals. While they almost certainly won’t put a dent in the Liberal stronghold of Toronto and it’s 25 ridings – it is the areas surrounding the city (the 905) where Erin O’Toole needs to make an impact. If the Conservatives can get some help from the NDP in other parts of the province – and turn a number of the 905 suburbs blue – it could prove enough for O’Toole to win.

There are a number of GTA ridings that will be hotly contested between the Liberals and Conservatives including four in York Region (Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill, King-Vaughan, Newmarket-Aurora and Richmond Hill) as well as in Whitby. All five ridings are being projected as toss-ups and only Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill is currently held by the Tories – leaving room for a big swing if Liberal support wanes in the GTA.

Outside of the GTA the Conservatives appear to be in a good position to claim two seats from the Liberals in Kitchener-Waterloo. In Kitchener-Conestoga, the Tories are hoping to grab the seat from the Liberal incumbent that they had held since 2006 before losing it in the 2019 election. In Kitchener Centre – where a Liberal MP remains on the ballot despite sexual assault allegations levelled against him – the Conservative candidate is the favourite in a three-way race involving the Green candidate.

Other races to watch around Ontario where the Tories could wrestle seats away from Liberal incumbents are in the ridings of Peterborough-Kawartha and Bay of Quinte. The Hastings-Lennox and Addington riding is up for grabs after former Conservative MP Derek Sloan was expelled by the party last year after a number of controversies. A riding to watch in Northern Ontario is Kenora with the Conservative incumbent defending in a close three-way race with the Liberal and NDP candidates.

Conservative leader Erin O’Toole is the incumbent for Durham in the GTA and is considered a safe bet to win. Embattled Green leader Annamie Paul is running in Toronto Centre – a seat that was held by former finance minister Bill Morneau – and remains a longshot to win that riding.

---

RELATED:

• The $600M election only Justin Trudeau wanted: will it backfire?

• Housing crisis a hot button election issue, party leaders promise change

• Liberal push to make election a referendum on pandemic only partly successful

---

THE PRAIRIES

2019 seats: Conservative 54, Liberal 4, NDP 4

O’Toole does not appear to have the same rock solid backing that Andrew Scheer had across the Western provinces in 2019. With the recent COVID-19 surge in Alberta and that province’s United Conservative Party – whose approach was once applauded by O’Toole – being forced to implement new restrictions and apologize about its pandemic response, the Tory support could slip even further on election night.

Conservative candidates are facing serious challenges in several urban ridings across the prairie provinces. They will need to limit the damage, particularly to Liberal challengers in Calgary and Edmonton. Losing ground to the NDP would be less of a hit to O’Toole’s overall chances at a victory.

There are two ridings each in Edmonton and Calgary where the Liberals could make hay against Conservative incumbents. Edmonton Centre, Edmonton Mill Woods, Calgary Centre and Calgary Skyview – with the latter likely being the best shot the Liberals have at grabbing a seat from the Tories. All four ridings were won by Liberal candidates in the 2015 election.

The NDP are also mounting legitimate challenges to Conservative incumbents in the Regina-Lewvan and Edmonton Griesbach ridings that figure to be very close races.

BRITISH COLUMBIA

2019 seats: Conservative 17, Liberal 11, NDP 11, Green 2

The Liberals are in position to potentially lose a handful of seats in B.C. to both the NDP and Conservatives. If the Tories can snag four or five ridings from the grits it could be the difference in them forming the next government.

The Conservatives are hoping to do the most damage in Greater Vancouver where a number of ridings are in danger of slipping from the Liberals grasps. The races to watch are Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam, Delta, Fleetwood-Port Kells and West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country where Conservative candidates are aiming to unseat Liberal incumbents. Polls show the Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam riding as one of the safest bets to flip on election night.

Independent MP Jody Wilson-Raybould’s former riding of Vancouver-Granville is a tight three-way race between the Liberal, Conservative and NDP candidates, and its winner may serve as the bellwether for the province.

The Tories will look to stand their ground with a challenge coming in Port Moody-Coquitlam from the NDP who look to regain a seat they had before the 2019 election. The NDP also are likely to take Burnaby North-Seymour from the Liberals who have held the riding since it was formed in 2015.

The Greens are hoping to hold on to their two seats on Vancouver Island – facing a challenge from both the Conservatives and NDP in Nanaimo-Ladysmith. The tight three-way race is another opportunity where the Tories could make a gain on the west coast.

NDP leader Jagmeet Singh is the incumbent in the Greater Vancouver riding of Burnaby South and is considered a safe bet to win.

THE NORTH

2019 seats: Liberal 2, NDP 1

There are two tight races in the territories with the Liberals running a new candidate in Yukon to try to hold off the NDP – and the NDP running a new candidate in Nunavut to hold off the Liberal challenge.

With files from 680 NEWS reporter Alex Bloomfield