Modelling data reportedly suggests COVID-19 case counts will triple in GTA by early April

A new pandemic forecast is suggesting the third wave will be worse than anything Ontario has seen so far.

The latest modelling data from the University of Waterloo and University of Guelph, predict daily COVID-19 cases in the Greater Toronto Area could triple by mid-April.

Chris Bauch, university research chair in the Department of Applied Mathematics at the University of Waterloo, tells the Toronto Star that the more infectious B.1.1.7 variant, coupled with loosened restrictions, will inevitably lead to the exponential growth in cases.

“You have a variant that’s 50 per cent more transmissible and you’re using the same tool box and control efforts that barely worked against the previous variant,” said Bauch to the Star. “It’s not even really rocket science.”

Bauch believes the stay-at-home order prevented thousands of cases for the province, now with more people on the move things will quickly move in the wrong direction.

The modelling is predicting around 3,800 new cases a day for the GTA by early April. It also predicts approximately 6,800 new cases a day for the province by April 1.

The GTA saw approximately 2,800 new cases a day at the peak of the second wave and the province peaked at over 4,200 daily cases.

The data from the two universities is based on the more transmissible B.1.1.7 variant and therefore exceeds numbers recently put forth from the province’s science advisory table. It also incorporates data on mobility between regions based on Statistics Canada figures.

Ontario’s science advisory table says the more transmissible variants of concerns now account for almost half of the new cases in the province and say Ontario has already entered the third wave.

The group says the growth in variant cases is happening across the province with almost two-thirds of public health units experiencing exponential growth.

In modelling released last week, the advisory table suggested if the transmission is high, in a worst-case scenario, the province could see 8,000 daily COVID-19 cases by April 2.

A medium spread would see daily cases in the 6,000 range, with roughly 2,000 new cases reported per day in a best-case scenario.

The latest provincial numbers confirm three additional cases of the B.1.1.7 variant. There are now 1,134 confirmed cumulative cases of the variant in the province.

The province is reporting 9,652 cases where a mutation has been detected but the exact lineage cannot be determined.

Ontario reported 1,508 COVID-19 cases on Wednesday. It was the highest daily increase the province has seen in over a month, not counting two days in recent weeks where data errors led to an overestimation of cases.

Vaccination efforts

While vaccinations efforts are ramping up in the province, officials say it will take some time before vaccines can make a real dent in the rising case counts.

There were 58,202 doses of the COVID-19 vaccine administered in the last 24 hour period, a single-day record in daily doses for the second straight day.

As of 8:00 p.m. Tuesday, 1,301,334 doses of the COVID-19 vaccine have been administered in the province and 290,659 people (approximately 2 per cent of the population) have been fully vaccinated

Three mass vaccination clinics in Toronto opened their doors on Wednesday.

The goal is for these clinics to eventually be used to vaccinate the general public, but officials are reminding residents that as of right now, they will only accept people over the age of 80 who have made an appointment.

Grey-Lockdown

The province will decide Friday whether to loosen restrictions for Toronto and Peel, both are currently in the strictest “Grey-Lockdown” category of the province’s pandemic framework, which allows retailers to open with capacity limits but keeps indoor restaurant dining, gyms, and personal care services close

Toronto mayor John Tory says he would like to see the city stay in ‘Grey-Lockdown’ with certain modifications in place.

“Public health officials are recommending some modifications to the grey zone…..led by the data,” says Tory. “Similar to the change the province made to church services last week.”

Toronto and Peel Region’s top doctors confirmed Wednesday they’re in active discussions with the province about keeping the public health units in lockdown but with modified restrictions that could permit outdoor dining and events as the weather improves in the coming weeks.