Ontario set to release new COVID-19 projections, introduce tougher restrictions

Ontario is set to release new COVID-19 modelling projections on Tuesday morning, with the release of the new data expected to be followed by additional provincial restrictions.

The new modelling data will be released at 11:30 a.m. and then Premier Doug Ford is expected to make an announcement on the new measures in the afternoon.

On Friday, Ford offered an ominous clue about what Ontarians can expect from the projections, saying “you will fall off your chair” when the new data is released and warned of “turbulent waters” over the next several months.

He says the healthcare system is on the brink of being overwhelmed and he urged Ontarians to stick together as it will be late spring before mass vaccination is available.

The new modelling is expected to project an average of 6,000 new daily cases in the province by the end of January unless tougher measures are imposed. The data is also expected to show that the new variant of the virus found in the province will lead to faster spreading and have a detrimental impact on the health-care system.

The CBC is reporting that the modelling will project the province’s intensive care units will be over capacity by early February.

The premier confirmed Monday that an announcement will be made on Tuesday regarding new lockdown measures for the province and did say that a province-wide curfew will not be happening.

“We worked all weekend, we will be going to cabinet with recommendations,” says Ford.

Ontario’s associate medical officer of health, Dr. Barbara Yaffe echoed the Premier, confirming on Monday that an overnight curfew is not among the many health and safety measures being considered by the provincial government.

“We have looked, certainly, at the measures put in place in other jurisdictions, other countries, and curfews have been put in place with multiple other measures,” Yaffe said.

The new measures are expected to focus on workplaces, an area that Yaffe says has become a growing source of infection.

“Places where people may be congregating during a break time,” said Yaffe. “They’re having coffee, they’re obviously not wearing a mask.”

On Monday, John Tory said he would like to see the return of the full lockdown that was imposed in the spring, saying there are businesses open today that were shut down during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Ontario reported 3,338 new cases of COVID-19 and 29 new deaths on Monday.

The 29 deaths bring the provincial death toll since the start of the pandemic past the 5,000 mark. The province also hit a record high of hospitalizations on Monday.