AP-GfK Poll: Clinton has commanding advantages over Trump

By Emily Swanson, The Associated Press

WASHINGTON – Americans see Hillary Clinton as the clear winner over Donald Trump in this year’s presidential debates, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. The survey shows commanding advantages for Clinton heading into the final days of the campaign.

Here are some things to know about American’s opinions about the presidential election from the new poll:

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CLINTON THE BIG DEBATE WINNER

Likely voters overwhelmingly think Clinton did better than Trump in the three presidential debates, by a 69 per cent to 29 per cent margin. And 34 per cent say the debates made them more likely to vote for Clinton, while just 18 per cent say they’re more likely to support Trump.

Clinton’s performance may have even helped her with Republicans, 37 per cent of whom say she won and 9 per cent of whom say they were more likely to vote for Clinton because of them. Just 1 per cent of Democrats say the debates made them more likely to support Trump.

The Democratic nominee holds a 14 point advantage overall among likely voters in the poll, 51-37, in part because of Republicans unwilling to say they’ll support the nominee — including some willing to cross the aisle and support Clinton. Nine per cent of Republicans in the poll, including 15 per cent of moderate to liberal Republicans, say they’re at least leaning toward supporting Clinton. Four per cent of Democrats say they’re supporting Trump.

Overall, 90 per cent of Democrats say they’re supporting their nominee, while 79 per cent of Republicans are supporting theirs.

Voters are increasingly certain that Clinton will ultimately win, the AP-GfK poll shows. Seventy-four per cent of likely voters say they think she will be the winner, up from 63 per cent in September.

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UPTICK IN RATINGS OF CLINTON

Although voters are still more likely to have an unfavourable than a favourable view of Clinton, her ratings have improved slightly in the past month. Forty-six per cent of likely voters now say they have a favourable view of the former secretary of state, and 51 per cent an unfavourable one.

In September, 42 per cent rated her favourably and 54 per centunfavourably. Meanwhile, just 34 per cent have a favourable view of Trump, while 64 per cent hold an unfavourable view of the billionaire businessman.

Clinton supporters are more likely than Trump supporters to say major factors behind their support include that their candidate has the best positions on the issues (75 per cent to 65 per cent), is the strongest leader (74 per cent to 57 per cent) and is most qualified to be president (86 per cent to 39 per cent).

Opposition to the other candidate is a major factor for supporters of both, but more so for Trump’s backers than Clinton’s, 86 per cent to 79 per cent. Trump’s supporters are more likely than Clinton’s to say a major reason for voting for their candidate is that it sends a message to the political establishment, 62 per cent to 36 per cent.

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HIGH ON OBAMA

There are signs that many Americans aren’t actually looking for dramatic changes. Fifty-five per cent now approve of the job Barack Obama is doing as president, up from 51 per cent in September.

On the other hand, 52 per cent of likely voters say they would most likely vote for someone else even if Obama could run for a third term.

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NARROWER GAP ON CONGRESS

The poll shows voters are slightly more likely to prefer Democratic than Republican control of Congress, by a 5 point margin. Nine in 10 Democratic and Republican voters alike prefer their own party to have control.

Still, the poll points to difficulties for the Republican Party moving forward. Just 36 per cent of likely voters have a favourable opinion of the party, while 61 per cent have an unfavourable one.

By contrast, Americans are divided evenly, 49-49, in their favourable versus unfavourable assessments of the Democratic Party.

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ALTERNATE MATCHUPS

If Mike Pence were the GOP nominee instead of Trump, the poll shows a dramatically tighter race against Clinton, or in a matchup against her running mate, Tim Kaine, if he were the Democratic nominee.

Clinton leads Trump by far among likely voters in a head-to head matchup, if third party candidates aren’t an option. But in a hypothetical matchup with Pence, Clinton’s margin becomes only 4 percentage points.

If the vice-presidential nominees were atop the ticket, the poll shows a nearly tied race. But Kaine leads Trump in a hypothetical matchup by a 16 point margin.

One reason for the difference is that Republicans appear more willing to support Pence than Trump. The 79 per cent of Republican likely voters who say they’re supporting Trump this year rises slightly to 85 per cent if forced to choose only between Trump and Clinton. But 91 per cent say they would support Pence in a head to head matchup against Clinton, and 93 per cent against Kaine.

In general, Republicans like Pence better than they like Trump. Eighty-one per cent of Republican voters have a favourable view of Pence, while just 68 per cent say the same of Trump.

Overall, voters are more likely to have a favourable than unfavourable opinion of both Pence (45 per cent to 36 per cent) and Kaine (44 per cent to 31 per cent).

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The AP-GfK Poll of 1,546 adults, including 1,212 likely voters, was conducted online Oct. 20-24, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 2.75 percentage points, and for likely voters is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Respondents were first selected randomly using telephone or mail survey methods and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t have access to the internet were provided access for free.

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Online:

Poll results: http://ap-gfkpoll.com

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