Analysis: Why are Republicans abandoning Donald Trump now?

Why now? And why this?

For the legion of Republicans who abandoned Donald Trump on Saturday, recoiling in horror from comments their party’s White House nominee made about using his fame to prey on women, there is no escaping those questions.

For months, they stomached his incendiary remarks about Mexicans, Muslims, prisoners of war, a Gold Star military family and a Hispanic judge, along with offensive statements about women too numerous to count. Democratic critics argue that their silence – or the promise to vote for Trump, but not endorse him – amounted to tacit approval of misogyny and racism.

There were no good answers Saturday, and few Republicans attempted to offer any.

Some, including House Speaker Paul Ryan and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, didn’t say anything at all about the top of the party’s ticket. A steady stream of others revoked their endorsements or called for Trump to drop out of the race, condemning the New York billionaire in emailed statements and carefully crafted tweets.

Those fleeing from Trump may ultimately say it was the shock of hearing and seeing the businessman’s crudeness on video that prompted them to finally walk away. On Friday, The Washington Post and NBC News both released a 2005 recording of Trump describing attempts to have sex with a married woman. His words were caught on a live microphone while talking with Billy Bush, then a host of “Access Hollywood.”

Some may draw a distinction between Trump’s outrageous earlier comments about women, minorities and others by noting that this time, the businessman wasn’t just being offensive – he was describing actions that could be considered sexual assault. In the video, Trump is heard saying that his fame allows him to “do anything” to women.

“Grab them by the p—-. You can do anything,” he says.

But with a month until Election Day, and early voting already underway in several states, the truest answer to why Republicans are dropping Trump now – and why they’re dropping him over this – is likely political.

During the Republican primary, GOP officials worried that disavowing Trump would alienate his supporters and hurt the party in congressional races. In the general election, Trump’s crass behaviour also seemed easier for Republicans to tolerate when stacked up against Democrat Hillary Clinton, a candidate so reviled by many in the GOP that virtually nothing Trump did seemed worse than the prospect of her becoming president.

But these new revelations come at a time when the White House race seems to be slipping away from Trump. He’s been unable to attract support beyond that offered by his core backers. His performance in the first debate was undisciplined and he followed it up by tangling with a beauty queen whom he shamed two decades ago for gaining weight.

“There were people who were just starting to feel like this ship was going down and now this gives people a good excuse to jump off,” said Katie Packer, a Republican strategist who advised Mitt Romney’s 2012 campaign and led an unsuccessful effort to prevent Trump from becoming the GOP nominee.

While some Republicans expressed astonishment and dismay over Trump’s 2005 comments, those who steadfastly refused to endorse him throughout the campaign suggested their party knew full well what they were getting with the brash real estate mogul and reality TV star.

“Nothing that has happened in the last 48 hours is surprising to me or many others,” said Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who was critical of Trump when he ran against him in the primary and has remained so for months.

Privately, even Republicans who didn’t formally revoke their support for Trump conceded there was little he could do to right his campaign at this point. Early voting is already underway in some key states and the comments aired in the video will likely be unforgivable with independent women – a constituency Trump desperately needs to win if he has any hope of defeating Clinton.

The last hope now for many Republicans is that an unimaginable election year will still end with the GOP in control of the Senate. New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte and Nevada Rep. Joe Heck, both locked in tight races, joined the parade of officials Saturday who said they simply couldn’t stand by Trump anymore.

For Ayotte, the move earned her no quarter from her Democratic opponent, New Hampshire Gov. Maggie Hassan.

“She has had one example after the next of Donald Trump’s despicable words and his despicable behaviour as reasons that she should have disavowed him,” Hassan said. “It took her until now when the revelation of his comments from a decade ago were made to decide that politically she couldn’t stand with him anymore.”

Look for more of the same in races nationwide. Democrats made clear Saturday they would spend the next month trying to ensure they and other Republicans get no credit for walking away now.

–––

The footage of Donald Trump in which he brags about aggressively groping women and trying to seduce a woman who is not his wife is the latest example of lewd and sexist comments made about women by the billionaire businessman and former reality TV star.

Some of the other comments Trump has made about women:

–––

“When you’re a star, they let you do it. You can do anything.” He adds seconds later: “Grab them by the p—-. You can do anything.” – Trump in a previously unreleased recording made by “Access Hollywood” in 2005, published Friday by The Washington Post and NBC News.

–––

“If Hillary Clinton can’t satisfy her husband what makes her think she can satisfy America #MakeAmericaGreatAgain.” – Trump tweeted in April 2015. He later deleted the post.

–––

“It must be a pretty picture, you dropping to your knees.” – Trump to a female contestant in 2013 on an episode of “Celebrity Apprentice.”

–––

“Did Crooked Hillary help disgusting (check out sex tape and past) Alicia M become a U.S. citizen so she could use her in the debate?” – Trump tweeted in September 2016. He was referring to former Miss Universe winner Alicia Machado, whom he publicly shamed for gaining weight when he owned the contest.

–––

“It’s certainly not groundbreaking news that the early victories by the women on ‘The Apprentice’ were, to a very large extent, dependent on their sex appeal.” – Trump wrote in his 2004 book, “How To Get Rich.”

–––

“All of the women on ‘The Apprentice’ flirted with me – consciously or unconsciously. That’s to be expected. A sexual dynamic is always present between people, unless you are asexual.” – Trump, also from “How To Get Rich.”

–––

“You could see there was blood coming out of her eyes. Blood coming out of her wherever.” – Trump in an interview with CNN in August 2015, referring to Fox News Channel anchor Megyn Kelly.

–––

“Look at that face! Would anyone vote for that? Can you imagine that, the face of our next president? I mean, she’s a woman, and I’m not s’posedta say bad things, but really, folks, come on. Are we serious?” – Trump in a September 2015 interview with Rolling Stone, speaking about then-primary rival Carly Fiorina.

–––

“It doesn’t really matter what (the media) write as long as you’ve got a young and beautiful piece of ass.” – Trump in an interview with Esquire Magazine in 1991.

–––

“A person who’s flat-chested is very hard to be a 10, OK?” – Trump in an interview with shock jock Howard Stern in September 2005.

–––

“I saw a woman who was totally beautiful. She was angry that so many men were calling her. ‘How dare they call me! It’s terrible! They’re all looking at my breasts.’ So she had a major breast reduction. The good news: Nobody calls her anymore – nobody even looks – and not only that, it was a terrible job.” – Trump to Stern in 2008.