SmartTrack could have over 300,000 riders by 2031: U of T study

The city’s proposed SmartTrack transit system could have more riders than all of GO Transit, according to a study out of the University of Toronto Transportation Research Institute.

Not only would there be more passengers, it could reduce subway crowding by 17 per cent in the downtown area, Mayor John Tory said at City Hall on Tuesday.

Tory was speaking about two studies, one from the school and the other from consultant HDR.

U of T paints a rosy picture of massive ridership in 2031: 314,567 daily riders by 2031 with a five-minute frequency. But the ridership numbers drop to 154,000 and 77,000 riders with 10- or 15-minute frequencies.

Currently, about 270,000 riders per day use GO Transit.

Tory says variables like track availability and cost would likely impact service frequency, but the goal is to match service levels currently offered by the TTC.

“I am more confident (in SmartTrack) based on these expert studies and the numbers they came up with,” Tory said Tuesday. “There is a huge case being made here as to the need for precisely this kind of transit. If anything, the ridership numbers today that we have seen maybe make the case for an even more robust version of SmartTrack.”

Last week, the Globe and Mail reported that the SmartTrack transit plan was in the process of being reworked behind the scenes, and the result will be a smaller and cheaper plan but with more frequent service.

Meanwhile, the report from consultant HDR suggested changes to the Western Corridor, moving the route from heavy rail to light-rail transit (LRT). The report says ridership along a light-rail route would be more than triple the ridership on the heavy-rail proposal.

The entire SmartTrack system will still cost $8 billion and be constructed within seven years, Tory said Tuesday. The province has already committed to electrify the Stoufville and Kitchener lines at a cost of $2.8 billion.

“There is nothing that has come up that would cause either the timeline or the overall cost projection to change,” Tory said Tuesday. “If anything, the change of approach for the Western spur will help us to continue to meet the original cost projection and timeline.”