Familiar results: More of the same across the country following federal election

By Michael Ranger

It was an election that few Canadians actually wanted – and for some casting a ballot meant waiting in line for more than an hour.

In the end the Liberals were denied the majority mandate they were looking for and the Conservatives and NDP failed to make significant inroads. Thousands of mail-in ballots still need to be counted and some too-close-to-call ridings remain up in the air. But for the most part parliament looks the same as it did five weeks ago when the campaign began.

While the gamble to turn a minority government into a majority ultimately failed, Justin Trudeau secured enough votes during Canada’s first-ever pandemic election to earn his third term as prime minister.

Here is a look at how things broke down across the country with results still pending in some too-close-to-call ridings:

ATLANTIC CANADA

2021 seats: Liberal 23 , Conservative 7, undecided 2

2019 seats: Liberal 27, Conservative 4, NDP 1

There wasn’t an anticipated shake-up in store for the Maritimes and Newfoundland heading into election night. Polls suggested the Liberals would have a fairly easy path on keeping their hold on the region with the Conservatives in a position to possibly gain some ground in the form of a few seats. And that’s exactly how things played out.

The Tories took two seats from Liberal incumbents in Nova Scotia, with Tory candidates winning in Cumberland-Colchester and South Shore-St. Margarets.

The Liberals were able to take back the lone NDP riding in Atlantic Canada – St. John’s East in Newfoundland – after the NDP MP incumbent there announced his retirement.

It was expected to be a three-way race in Fredericton, where the Greens were hoping to reclaim the New Brunswick capital. The Greens actually took the riding in 2019 with MP Jenica Atwin then crossing the floor to join the Liberal party earlier this year. The riding has yet to be called with Atwin leading the Conservative candidate by 500 votes.

The riding of Coast of Bays-Central-Notre Dame in Newfoundland also remains up in the air with the Conservative candidate leading the Liberal incumbent by a slim margin.

QUEBEC

2021 seats: Bloc 33, Liberal 31, Conservative 10, NDP 1, undecided 3

2019 seats: Liberal 35, Bloc 32, Conservative 10, NDP 1

The big story in Quebec on election night was a number of tightly contested ridings between the Bloc Quebecois and the Liberals. A surge from the Bloc in 2019 played a big part in Trudeau only coming away with a minority government and things stood pat for the most part in 2021. The Bloc were able to wrestle a seat from a Liberal incumbent in the riding of Chateauguay-Lacolle.

There are three races still undecided in the province including a close three-way race in Trois-Rivieres where the Bloc, Conservative and Liberal candidates are separated by fewer than 1,000 votes.

The People’s Party of Canada (PPC) leader Maxime Bernier was unable to regain his seat in Beauce from the Conservative incumbent. The PPC saw a relative surge in the popular vote though Bernier served as the party’s only realistic shot at a seat.

Liberal leader Justin Trudeau and Bloc leader Yves-Francois Blanchet both comfortably won their ridings.

ONTARIO

2021 seats: Liberal 71, Conservative 36, NDP 6, Green 1, undecided 7

2019 seats: Liberal 79, Conservative 36, NDP 6

Things ended up familiar in Ontario where the Conservatives were hoping make the big gains on Trudeau and the Liberals. While the Tories weren’t expected to put a dent in the Liberal stronghold of Toronto and it’s 25 ridings – the areas surrounding the city (the 905) was where Erin O’Toole was hoping to make an impact.

There were a number of hotly contested GTA ridings where the Tories had their eyes on unseating Liberal incumbents – the undecided King-Vaughan looks like the lone spot in the 905 where that will be the case. The Liberals were able to mitigate that potential loss by taking Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill from the Conservative incumbent.

Outside of the GTA the Conservatives appeared to be in a good position to claim two seats from the Liberals in Kitchener-Waterloo. In Kitchener-Conestoga, votes are still being counted but the Liberal incumbent Tim Louis holds a slim lead over the Tory candidate. In Kitchener Centre – where a Liberal MP remained on the ballot despite sexual assault allegations levelled against him – the Green Party candidate made history by claiming the party’s first seat in Ontario.

The Tories did manage to make gains in the ridings of Peterborough-Kawartha and Bay of Quinte – unseating Liberal candidates in both cases. The Hastings-Lennox and Addington riding ended up staying blue after the it was up for grabs when former Conservative MP Derek Sloan was expelled by the party last year after a number of controversies.

Conservative leader Erin O’Toole comfortably won his GTA riding of Durham. Embattled Green leader Annamie Paul was once again unable to win a seat in Toronto Centre.

THE PRAIRIES

2021 seats: Conservative 50, Liberal 5, NDP 5, undecided 2

2019 seats: Conservative 54, Liberal 4, NDP 4

O’Toole did not have the same rock solid backing that Andrew Scheer had across the Western provinces in 2019, but the Tories were able to hold their ground for the most part in the prairie provinces.

Conservative candidates faced serious challenges in several urban ridings across the prairies. There were two ridings each in Edmonton and Calgary where the Liberals were hoping to make hay against Conservative incumbents. The Liberal did unseat a Tory incumbent in Calgary Skyview – and could do the same in Edmonton Centre with votes still being tallied. The Conservatives were able to keep their seats in Edmonton Mill Woods and Calgary Centre. All four ridings were won by Liberal candidates in the 2015 election.

The NDP gained a seat from the Conservatives in the Edmonton Griesbach riding.

BRITISH COLUMBIA

2021 seats: Conservative 13, Liberal 12, NDP 12, Green 1, undecided 3

2019 seats: Conservative 17, Liberal 11, NDP 11, Green 2

The polls had the Liberals in a position to lose a handful of seats in B.C. to both the NDP and Conservatives but the grits managed to come away unscathed.

The Conservatives were hoping to do the most damage in Greater Vancouver where a number of ridings were in danger of slipping from the Liberals grasps. Polls had the Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam riding as one of the safest bets to flip on election night but the Liberal incumbent came away with the victory. The Liberals actually managed to unseat two Conservative incumbents in Cloverdale-Langley City and Steveston-Richmond Centre.

Independent MP Jody Wilson-Raybould’s former riding of Vancouver-Granville remains an undecided three-way race with the Liberal candidate leading the NDP candidate by more than 200 votes.

The NDP managed to gain a seat from the Tories in Port Moody-Coquitlam.

The Greens held on to one of their two seats on Vancouver Island and remain locked in an undecided three-way race in Nanaimo-Ladysmith where the Green, Conservative and NDP candidates are separated by thousands of votes.

NDP leader Jagmeet Singh comfortably won his Greater Vancouver riding of Burnaby South.

THE NORTH

2021 seats: Liberal 2, NDP 1

2019 seats: Liberal 2, NDP 1

Things remained unchanged in the territories with all incumbents winning three close races.

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