Ontario’s COVID-19 numbers are improving, too early to conclude downward trend says Dr. Yaffe

By Michael Ranger

Ontario’s COVID-19 numbers have looked promising in recent days, leaving many to wonder if the worst of the second wave is behind us.

Ontario’s Associate Medical Officer of Health, Dr. Barbara Yaffe, is warning that it is too early to confirm if things are truly trending in the right direction.

“We’re seeing some improvement,” Yaffe said. “But we do need to see more data to determine if those decreasing rates are a real trend.”

Among the positive data, Yaffe notes the provincial case rate has started to decrease for the first time since November and the average test positivity rate has been moving the right way as well..

Ontario is now sitting at 145.4 cases per 100,000 people and the average positivity rate is 5.3 per cent, down from 6.3 a week ago. Rates have gone down in twenty-six of the province’s 34 health units.

However, the new COVID-19 modelling data that was released on Jan. 12 showed Ontario’s long-term care sector continues to be devastated by the virus and ICU occupancy has continued to increase.

According to the latest numbers from the province there are still 1,533 patients in the hospital with the virus and 388 patients remain in the ICU. Ontario reported 2,632 new cases and 46 deaths on Thursday.

The province is also reporting 15 cases of the COVID-19 variant first detected in the U.K. Health officials are now concerned about community spread of the new strain as four of the confirmed cases have not travelled.

A yet-to-be identified strain of the virus was recently found in six tests at a long-term care home in Barrie that is in the midst of a massive outbreak. The home has 122 residents and 69 staff members that have tested positive. Nineteen residents have died as a result of the virus.

Yaffe says the province is working to identify that variant at Roberta Place Long Term Care and expects more variant strains to be detected moving forward.

“We know there is a mutation in there,” says Yaffe about Roberta Place. “About 56 per cent more transmissible, we don’t know which mutant it is.”

The province also hit a roadblock with vaccinations this week. The delay in Pfizer production led to the province announcing the country will not receive any shipments of the vaccine next week but in an update from the federal government Canada is expected to receive 79,000 doses of Pfizer’s shots by the first week of February.

There are now 40,225 Ontarians completely vaccinated.

The promising trend in case numbers comes a week after the provincial government announced additional, stricter COVID-19 lockdown measures including a second Ontario-wide state of emergency and a stay-at-home order in the wake of new modelling released last week.

On Wednesday, Ontario’s Education Minister Stephen Lecce announced that in-person learning will remain suspended across the GTHA under recommendation from Ontario’s Chief Medical Officer of Health, Dr. David Williams, who says the closure of schools in Durham and Halton regions will continue until further notice.

Over 100,000 students from a number of the province’s other public health units will be returning for in-person learning next week.


With files from the Canadian Press

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