New modelling shows peak in community spread of coronavirus, growth in long-term care homes

New modelling predictions show that the wave of new, community spread cases of coronavirus in Ontario appears to have peaked, but the spread in long-term care homes and other group settings is still growing.

Earlier models predicted the peak would be hit in May, however according to data released by the province’s Ministry of Health, public health measures and social distancing have brought it forward.

“The sacrifices people are making to stay home and wash their hands are making a difference,” the Ministry said in a release.

While staying at home and physical distancing measures are working, Chief Medical Officer of Health David Willaims said Emergency measures must remain in place to continue reducing the number of cases and deaths.

The total expected cases for the span of the outbreak is now expected to be less than 20,000, which is significantly lower than the previous prediction of 80,000 at best or 300,000 in the worst case scenario.

In addition, even though hundreds of new cases are being confirmed in the province daily, the numbers show that hospitals have not been overwhelmed thanks to expanded hospital capacity and public health measures.

The day-over-day rate of growth in the province is also declining.

Minister of Health Christine Elliott stressed that while the modelling predictions are encouraging, it is not time to ease any restrictions just yet.

“These numbers are not an accident. They are the result of months of planning and collective action to stop the spread of COVID-19 and flatten the curve,” she said. “However, in order for these projections to become reality, each of us must continue to stay home as much possible and practice physical distancing.”

In a release, the Ministry reiterated that apart from essential service workers, Ontarians need to stay home unless absolutely necessary, for such things as picking groceries or medication and supporting vulnerable members of the community. Those who must step out are asked to go alone and stay six feet away from others.

Even as part of the data points to a better than expected outcome, it also shows that Ontario is now dealing with two different scenarios when it comes to the spread of COVID-19.

On the one hand, community spread seems to have peaked and is coming under control, but on the other, spread in long-term care homes and other group settings seems to be growing.

Outbreaks have been declared in 127 long-term care homes in the province so far.

The province launched an action plan for long-term care homes last week to enhance protections for residents and staff.

Some of the measures include expanding testing to contacts of confirmed cases, whether they are showing symptoms or not. Staff from hospitals as well as home and community care are being deployed to support the long-term care home workforce.

A total of 1533 residents and 847 staff at long-term care homes have tested positive for COVID-19 and there have been 367 deaths.

Watch the full modelling update below.