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PCs would stay in power despite majority of Ontarians' disapproval of Ford: poll

Ontario Premier Doug Ford speaks to the media during a press conference in downtown Toronto on Dec. 18, 2018. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette

A majority of Ontarians disapprove of Doug Ford but if an election were held today, the PC premier would remain in office, according to a new poll.

The findings from Mainstreet Research showed Ford’s net favourability rating stands at -21.5 per cent while Opposition leader Andrea Horwath’s net rating is -0.5 per cent. Interim Liberal leader John Fraser had a net rating of -6.8 per cent, while Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner’s net favourability rating is -3.8 per cent.

“It is surprising to see Doug Ford’s favourability numbers being this low this early in his mandate.” Quito Maggi, president and CEO of Mainstreet Research, said in a release.

“This is not good news for the Premier and if these numbers keep trending downwards, Ford’s favourability will match that of Kathleen Wynne’s at the end of her mandate.”

But when asked who they would vote for if an election were held today, 41.4 per cent of Ontarians said Ford — although that number is down 0.8 per cent from November. Horwath’s number was also down 0.5 per cent to 27 per cent. Both the Liberals and the Green Party saw their numbers rise (up 0.5 per cent to 22.6 per cent, and up 0.6 per cent to seven per cent, respectively).

The poll found that in Toronto, the NDP and the PCs would be virtually neck and neck with 34.5 per cent saying they’d vote for Horwath while 33.8 per cent said they would vote Ford.

But it’s a drastically different story when looking at the overall GTA.

The numbers showed that the PCs have a phenomenal lead over their competition with 46.4 per cent of respondents giving their support. And it would be the Liberals, not the NDP, who would be Ford’s main competition with 24.9 per cent saying that’s where their vote would go. The NDP would see 17.9 per cent support while the Greens would see 8.2 per cent.

The PCs continue their lead in both southwestern and eastern Ontario, while northern Ontario and south central would vote NDP.

“The PCs are doing well and are substantially ahead of their rivals, but Ford’s poor favourability ratings indicate a high amount of dissatisfaction with the government,” concluded Maggi.

Mainstream Research’s latest UltraPoll, which is a conglomeration of 10 provincial polls, surveyed 1127 Ontarians between January 15 and 17. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.92 per cent and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

A complete look at the data can be found below.

Mainstreet on 28january2018 by on Scribd