This speculation is not fair to Mayor Ford or to the City of Toronto, which is suffering from the collateral damage on the world stage. International news agencies, including the BBC, were calling the 680 newsroom last Friday in search of those who could be interviewed about the allegations and the mayor’s lame response — so you can be sure that most people in Europe have an opinion of him and the city that elected him. American networks have been carrying the story on their prime-time newscasts and last night, the three big late-night talk shows had a field day ridiculing the situation. It wouldn’t be a stretch to assume that “SNL” is working on a skit for the upcoming weekend.

There has always been a school of thought among some PR practitioners and brand builders that any publicity is always better than none. I don’t buy that theory. Just ask Nigel Wright or Mike Duffy if the kind of attention they are receiving is helping their professional lives. Toronto took a hit with SARS and Mayor Lastman’s clumsy response to world concerns. The Ford fiasco may not hurt tourism, but it is clear he has lost all leadership credibility or the power of persuasion over a divided council, and that sends a scary signal to those abroad who may otherwise consider investing in the city.

As a media specialist and trainer I can assure you and Rob Ford that the negative attention will continue until the mayor shuts it down himself by taking some action, NOW. The action he takes will “become the news” instead of the news, commentary and street level speculation continuing to be about why he is not taking a firm, if not legal stance against such serious allegations.

Personally, I have never been bombarded more by friends, neighbors or radio listeners wanting to know “what’s going on with the mayor?,” “why doesn’t he take legal action against the Toronto Star if the allegations are not true”,” “if he’s not fighting back then there must be something to the story” they say, or “the Star has gone too far in their relentless attack on Ford.”

When I’m asked what I think, I can only respond that I spoke directly to Toronto Star investigative reporter Kevin Donovan, whose track record and whose power of observation I respect and trust. He told me what he saw in that cell phone video and what he has already reported.

It is time for the mayor to say or do something more about it.

This budget book was essentially co-authored by the Libs and NDP with the former focused on staying alive, but what could change Andrea Horwath’s mind, is a little reflection time and some “poll searching.”

The Ipsos Reid poll published last week found the NDP support at its highest level than ever before, at 29 per cent, which is one point higher than the Liberals.

It also found that 66 per cent of Ontarians think it is time for a change at Queen’s Park after nine years of a Liberal government. So, with that kind of an appetite for change, it is conceivable that Horwath could get more credit and support in an election for pulling the plug — than getting blamed and trounced for it.

The NDP may not be able to win an election but they could end up as the official Opposition, or although no one is talking about it — she could demand a formal written accord as Bob Rae did with David Peterson when he was leader of the NDP in Ontario.

All indications are that the budget will include many, if not all of what the NDP requested, as it flexed its balance of power muscle in pre-budget negotiation.

The inference to Premier Kathleen Wynne’s new minted minority government is: you give us what we would give the folks of Ontario if we were governing, and we will let you stay in power a little longer. But that is just the inference, and not a signed deal or contract that binds the third party into supporting the budget when it is up for a vote this month.

If Horwath lets the government live, she risks losing credit (to the premier) for some of the popular/populist positions of the budget, including the reduction of auto insurance rates by 15 per cent. Approving the budget also gives the Wynne government time to deserve a majority by establishing itself in the hearts and minds of the province. If she triggers an election by voting against the budget bill, she risks the wrath of voters who don’t want one, and don’t want to lose the benefits that will likely be contained in the budget document.

I’ve had many private conversations with retired political party leaders including Jean Chretien, Paul Martin and Mike Harris about the loneliness of the job — especially when trying to make the pivotal decisions. Horwath said she will consult “the people” before making a decision — but I ask, which people? And in what way? In my view, the only way to consult people when not wanting to make the tough, lonely decision yourself, is through an election.

The Liberal Party launched a response ad today in which Trudeau is portrayed as … well … just himself. He appears on your screen half-straddling a classroom desk, watching a Tory ad begin to claim that “he’s in over his _____,” before hitting the remote kill switch, turning into the camera to say “Canadians deserve better,” “we can mistrust and find flaws in each other, or pull together and get to work.” He goes on to say a few other things as well, like that he’s “proud to be a teacher,” that yes, he is a son and a father, and that although he is a leader, his role is to serve.

It’s tempting to earnestly agree with him that Canadians’ deserve better than a bunch of attack ads “harshing” their own judgment, but that is too much of a given to waste time getting into it.

What also seem obvious when it comes to the content of the ad exchange, is that Trudeau’s choice to appear just being his authentic self (for better or for worse) has more long-term merit, than the Tory ad’s that recklessly and erroneously try to put words into his mouth that he didn’t use.

A quick unscientific poll of those in our multi-national, multi-demographic and multi-gendered 680 newsroom (and no, it is not a  “Liberal shop”) finds more thumbs-up for Justin’s message than the inaccurate Tory attack ad.

No question that I am excessively sensitive because of a personal friendship I enjoy and treasure with Ken Taylor, whom I first met along with his wife Pat 30 years ago while covering the America’s cup sailing race in Newport, Rhode Island. The Taylors were at the height of American adulation for their role in the crisis and I witnessed it first hand. The friendship and respect has endured over time.

Some of us close to Ken had concerns at the outset when “Argo” premiered here in Toronto at TIFF 2012. Ken wasn’t even invited to the premiere and it soon became evident why.

• Postscript: Affleck agrees to change post script of “Argo”
• Taylor interview included in DVD version of “Argo”
• Former U.S. president Carter praises movie while dissing CIA confirming
  Canada and Taylor’s role
• Taylor and Canada thanked in acceptance speech
• Taylor appears on CNN’s “Situation Room” once again accepting
  American thanks through Wolf Blitzer
• Word is that Affleck is perplexed Taylor is the buzz. What did you expect Ben? To get away with a distortion of history?
• Major Canadian documentary currently in production about all of the above based on Canadian author Robert Wright’s recent book Our Man in Tehran.

Ken is cool with the outcome, telling me on air that the Oscar and backlash attention to the Canadian role by former president Carter and CNN has helped educate a whole generation of young people, who would probably otherwide not be awareof the pivitol moment in history. Click here to listen to my interview with Taylor.

It was clear as she appeared for her first official public news conference, that the “headiness” of the night before was as much history, as the kind she made with victory over Sandra Pupatello at the former Maple Leaf Gardens the night before. Wynne appeared looking and sounding very much like a premier, already assuming the responsibilities of the office after only a few hours of celebration and sleep.

I have known and seen others newly elected to leadership roles wake up the next morning still giddy, stunned and unsure of what it was supposed to feel like. I clearly remember David Miller telling me the morning after that he woke up thinking “Crikey, I’m the mayor.” Bob Rae was justifiably stunned the morning he woke up as the first NDP premier after David Peterson’s Liberal government was turfed for calling an election way before one was necessary or wanted. In both cases, their first news conference were void of substance and stature.

But not Wynne. She appeared confident, comfortable in her new skin — literally — and conveyed the stature her new life demands.

In response to a question about her homosexuality, and the fact that she herself raised it during her convention speech, she made it clear that she was not, nor was she going to be a gay activist, pointing out that her circumstances can “help others be less fearful” — but she’s not going to spend next months talking about it.

“Forging personal relationships with Andrea Horwath and Tim Hudak” is the way she plans to deal with the minority legislature, and doesn’t that seem like a logical thing to do? Welcome to a woman’s way of doing things.

In a nutshell, I think Sandra Pupatello will become the premier after four ballots, maybe five. Much of the timing could depend on who finishes in third place on the first ballot. Based on delegate counts coming into the convention, Gerard Kennedy should end up third, but there is now buzz that some of Kennedy’s support is leaking over to Charles Sousa.

I think Sousa will eventually throw his support to Pupatello rather than Kathleen Wynne as the more business-savvy choice, and the one most likely to appeal throughout the province in a general election. I think Harinder Takhar will attempt to extract a cabinet position of his choice out of both potential leaders in exchange for his delegate support, and both of the prominent women will agree in return for his delegate support. Takhar in my view is more likely to get what he wants from Pupatello.

Again, in a nutshell, I think at the end of the day, Kennedy will throw support to Wynne, and so will Hoskins, but it won’t be enough to trump the combined numbers of Sousa and Takhar. I also think any delegate freed from the latter campaigns will decide that Pupatello is the one most able to win an election when ever it is called.

This could all take as many as five ballots, but I am going to (guess only) — call it in four.

Politicians live in a “vote” economy, while professional money managers live in the “real” economy. Del Grande is a professional money manager, not a professional politician. It was a good fit at the outset because Rob Ford was elected on the pledge to get the city’s finances in order following years of spending money the city didn’t have.

Who better to comb through the books line by line to find efficiencies and to reconcile spending than a chartered accountant? Add to that qualification, Del Grande’s disciplined work ethic and poor beginnings, (which taught him the value of a dollar saved versus a dollar spent), and the city had a match made in heaven. But in the messy business of politics — municipal politics in particular — professional politicians living in a vote or re-vote economy and professional money managers living in the “real” economy mix like oil and water.

As many of us have found along the career path, we are happiest, most productive and feel most useful when our particular skill is in demand and appreciated. When it’s not, or when our skill set is fought by those who have a different agenda, we feel vilified, frustrated and utterly unhappy.

That’s why Del Grande resigned, and I for one don’t blame him — I would too!

What’s at stake in this current debate, is a “higher” property tax hike than the two per cent that this budget (prepared by budget chief Mike Del Grande) needs from property owners to cover the $9.4-billion it commits to city services. He tells me this morning that he expects some councillors will request more money be allocated to sectors like public transit and public housing, but his view of the housing sector is that it hasn’t (in his words) “got its act together yet.”

Council will also consider the $500-million that the mayor’s executive has recommended be spent over the next 10 years to fix the Gardiner Expressway. The CAA is concerned that some councillors will oppose this spending plan at the expense of public safety.

In my view, Del Grande is the smartest and most disciplined guy in the room. Council would be wise to pass his budget as is.

It will be the first time we have ever been out of the snowy Canadian landscape for the actual Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, so I’m not sure what it will feel like. I have this doubt that it will feel at all like Christmas (which for me is usually a roller-coaster of emotions that range from joy to melancholy as I reflect on those of my family who are no longer with us). The joyous part is usually accompanied the glorious winter wonderland scene that is usually visible from every window of  our cozy country home.

I’ve been waffling back and forth over the emotional wisdom of leaving home for the two special days, but I’m sure I will get over it after the first beer on the beach and first drive on the golf course. In fact, after hearing and watching THIS, I have agreed that all I want or need for Christmas is a real good tan.

Hope you have a pleasant restful holiday and feel all of the emotions that confirm we are alive.

Talk to you in the New Year.