Ontario budget preview: How do you say ‘no’ to ‘yes’?

Ontario NDP Leader Andrea Horwath faces one of the most pivotal decisions of her political life once the provincial budget is tabled later Thursday.

All indications are that the budget will include many, if not all of what the NDP requested, as it flexed its balance of power muscle in pre-budget negotiation.

The inference to Premier Kathleen Wynne’s new minted minority government is: you give us what we would give the folks of Ontario if we were governing, and we will let you stay in power a little longer. But that is just the inference, and not a signed deal or contract that binds the third party into supporting the budget when it is up for a vote this month.

If Horwath lets the government live, she risks losing credit (to the premier) for some of the popular/populist positions of the budget, including the reduction of auto insurance rates by 15 per cent. Approving the budget also gives the Wynne government time to deserve a majority by establishing itself in the hearts and minds of the province. If she triggers an election by voting against the budget bill, she risks the wrath of voters who don’t want one, and don’t want to lose the benefits that will likely be contained in the budget document.

I’ve had many private conversations with retired political party leaders including Jean Chretien, Paul Martin and Mike Harris about the loneliness of the job — especially when trying to make the pivotal decisions. Horwath said she will consult “the people” before making a decision — but I ask, which people? And in what way? In my view, the only way to consult people when not wanting to make the tough, lonely decision yourself, is through an election.