Ontario shed some 59,300 part-time jobs in January – the same month the province hiked minimum wage some 20 per cent to $14 an hour, but experts say it may be too soon to know how much the two are correlated.
The province shed 50,900 jobs total from December 2017, according to the Statistics Canada report.
It gained approximately 8,500 full-time positions but lost roughly 59,300 part-time gigs, according to data provided by the agency, which noted the figures are rounded.
That means there was 3.4 per cent or 46,100 fewer part-time posts in January 2018 than the same time the previous year.
Some economists said it’s possible Ontario’s minimum wage increase played a role in those declines, but noted it’s important not to read too much into one month of data.
The province hiked minimum wage by $2.40 per hour to $14 per hour at the beginning of the year, a move some economists warned could result in mass job losses as employers look to reduce costs.
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Overall, economists are divided on how minimum wage increases play out. Some research has suggested a reduction in hours or jobs follow mandated wage bumps, while other studies suggest no long-term connection between wage increases and dips in employment rates.
The 59,000 figure is a “whopping” one, said Matthieu Arseneau, senior economist at National Bank Financial Markets, in a note.
It “may be a sign of adjustments made by corporations coping with a minimum wage surge,” he said, noting young people ages 15 to 24 lost 24,000 part-time positions.
However, economists also pointed to possible connections between Ontario’s minimum wage and Canada’s stronger average wage growth of 3.3 per cent in January.
“One of the positives in today’s release was the fact that wage growth picked up,” said Craig Alexander, chief economist at the Conference Board of Canada.
“Now part of that might be reflecting the increase in minimum wages in Ontario because that increase in minimum wage is impacting more than 20 per cent of all the workers in Ontario.”
The board’s modelling suggests the increase will reduce the number of jobs created in Ontario this year by roughly 40,000.
Ontario’s mandatory minimum hourly rate is set for another bump in January 2019, when it will rise to $15.