Low voter turnout expected for Thursday byelections

TORONTO – Voters will head to the polls in five Ontario byelections on Thursday, but voter turnout could be dismal.

Officials with Elections Ontario expect a low turnout due to the upcoming Civic Day long weekend, while many are already away on summer holidays.

So opposition parties are focusing on getting whatever votes are available out to the voting booth on Thursday.

This is the first time a provincial election or a byelection has been held in the summer since the mid-80s.

Voter turnout fell below the 50-per cent mark in the 2011 general election, and election officials expect it will be around 35 per cent for Thursday’s byelections.

However, University of Toronto political science professor Nelson Wiseman predicted a much lower voter turnout.

“I would be surprised if turnout is higher than 30 per cent in all the constituencies collectively. It might be 25 or 20 per cent,” Wiseman told 680News.

Meanwhile, although the outcome won’t affect the Liberals minority status at Queen’s Park, some political experts think the government could be punished for recent scandals.

Wiseman said voters against the government are usually more motivated.

Etobicoke-Lakeshore is one of the closely-watched races, with two municipal politicians trying to step into a more senior level of government. Peter Milczyn is the Liberal candidate, while Doug Holyday is running for the Progressive Conservatives.

The riding has been Liberal since 2003, previously held by former education minister Laurel Broten, who left politics effective July 2.

Wiseman said Holyday could beat Milczyn in the Etobicoke-Lakeshore riding.

“I think he could win again. We also have a poll most recently showing that he’s got a healthy lead,” Wiseman said.

Wiseman also questioned talk about a possible change in Dalton McGuinty’s former Ottawa riding.

“There’s a poll that has come out recently suggesting that the Conservatives have a big lead there. I’m not sure that lead is as big as reported,” he said.

He expected the NDP will very likely win in Windsor, while the London riding is a toss up.

Wiseman doesn’t expect the governing Liberals to win them all, but he doesn’t expect they’ll come up empty either.

For more information on how to vote visit Elections Ontario.

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